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My one major disagreement, don’t touch Fournette with a 10 foot pole. We have no oline yet both our RB are averaging 4.5 YPC. RB is far from a position of need. Dallas has 3 1st round OL on their roster. Elliot doesn’t get touched for the first 3 to 5 yards.
I agree with not reaching at QB for sure. If there’s a top tier C in this draft worthy if it, that’s where I spend the second 1st round pick.
Freedom!!!
Getting new tires in my car so I just watched a video of Trubsky highlights. You sure as shit can’t question his deep ball. On the highlights only one pass TD was poorly thrown. Everything else was dead in accuracy where only his guy can get it. Compared to the Wentz highlights from last year and Trubsky is light years ahead of him. Though much like Goff it was all shotgun.
Freedom!!!
Great breakdown all around. I’m with Soup, stay from Fournette. Not because hes bad, it’s just not a need at all.
No way do you go QB with #1, I agree maybe a Myles Garret or Peppers. However it shakes out to Best Player Available. (does Garret fit into a 3-4? I genuinely don’t know the answer to that) I’d go QB with the 2nd 1st round pick. And like many of you, the Trubisky kid looks more and more appealing to me. He’ll still be there at 9-11 which is where that Eagles pick should shake out, so fuck it, take the gamble and grab the kid right then and there.
After that, just pound O-line and Secondary the rest of the draft. 6 straight rounds (and I believe 11 remaining picks) of just O-line and secondary.
I think Garrett fits into the 3-4 as an OLB and compares favorably to Willie McGinest. He has that kind of every down high energy motor and is even more athletic than the great McGinest was (there’s more to playing OLB than athleticism though). He is Jadaveon Clowney with a non stop motor and positive attitude. You can’t avoid his rush by just stepping up in the pocket. He’s going to cause fumbles. There will be sacks and tackles for losses. He’s going to bat balls at the line. He’s going to get interceptions.
Not only do I think he can play OLB in the 3-4, I believe he will be an all time great. That’s not hyperbole. He’s no Kam Wimbley or Barkevious Mingo. He’s freakishly athletic and at 6’5″ and 270 lbs he’s too fast for tackles and too big for tight ends and running backs. I shit you not, if we draft him, I’m buying the jersey and I’m getting it autographed. Nothing against Jonathan Allen, I just think Garrett is a once in a generation sort of talent. He checks all the boxes.
Watch this video:
Myles Garrett Inside the Huddle818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0I wasn’t sure it met the high journalistic standards of BFT! In all seriousness though, I hadn’t intended on writing an article, this was merely a long winded post that got WAY out of hand (sometimes I think he talks just to hear himself speak). I have no issues putting it on the front page if you want it there, I just don’t like to presume. This is your site @Ice, putting something on the front page would be like painting your house. Fine if we talked about it, but really overstepping some boundaries if not!
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0Technically I own the site which means I rake in the billions of dollars of ad revenue the site generates annually. But this site belongs to all of us! It’s not my house you’re painting, it’s the clubhouse we all hang out at. I wish more people would come paint the clubhouse!
Technically I own the site which means I rake in the billions of dollars of ad revenue the site generates annually. But this site belongs to all of us! It’s not my house you’re painting, it’s the clubhouse we all hang out at. I wish more people would come paint the clubhouse!
Charlie Frye article coming your way
Freedom!!!
I wish more people would come paint the clubhouse!
Well if we won more games………….
If we won more games, then we’d have more bandwagon fans. Yeah, there’d be more people on the site but I’m ok with just having TRUE fans. Except that day every year where I pay the hosting fees…. then I think about how it would be to run a Patriots site…
>Charlie Frye article coming your way
Which is the intellectual equivalent of someone spray painting graffiti on the wall.
Good write up. Personally, I’m so desperate for the Browns to get a franchise QB I’ve already built Trubisky up in my mind and haven’t even seen him play. The need is THAT bad.
We don’t need EJ Manuel. but, even if it’s the right move, it’s very difficult for me to accept not getting a QB at 1 or ~10. Very difficult. I just can’t get excited about watching another latr pick or journeyman or reclamation project at QB. I have nothing left to give on project QBs.
>Charlie Frye article coming your way
Which is the intellectual equivalent of someone spray painting graffiti on the wall.
The most beautiful graffiti you ever saw!
Freedom!!!
@soup and @shooter I’m going to disagree on Fournette simply because he’s not at a position of need. There’s a reason you take the Best Player Available. If Fournette is really the best RB since (or you feel he’s as good as) Adrian Peterson, he’s a player that can take over the game. Guys like that change the face of your franchise.
Here’s the problem when you pass on the BPA because you have more pressing needs:
You pass on Aaron Rodgers because you have Charlie Frye and he was okay. You pass on Julio Jones because you have Greg Little, Mohamed Massoquoi and Chansi Stuckey. In that same draft (2011) you also passed on JJ Watt by trading back. Thank goodness we got Phil Taylor or we’d look foolish right now…
And the “role players” you took at positions of greater need? Gone, because the team has no identity and no one wants to be a part of an 0-16 season.
Now, to be clear here I’m not saying the Browns should draft Leonard Fournette. I’m saying if they think that Leonard Fournette is the next Adrian Peterson, they’d be fools to pass on him for a tackle, center or guard. Impact players at skill positions are exceptionally rare. Sometimes they’re the sure thing, can’t miss prospects (A.J. Green/Julio Jones/Calvin Johnson). Sometimes they’re not (T.Y. Hilton/Antonio Brown/etc.). But consider this, of the top 10 players at QB/RB/WR positions in the NFL,
QB: Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford
RB: Ezekiel Elliot, Melvin Gordon
WR: Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, A.J. Green, Kenny Britt, Demarius Thomas14 of the top 30 QBs, Rbs and WRs were taken in the first round. 12 of the top 20 Qbs and WRs were taken in the first round. Is that an argument against Fournette? Possibly, until you realize the number 1 running back in the NFL was 2016’s 4th overall pick Ezekiel Elliot (I know, I know, he has an amazing line. He also has a rookie signal caller). The thing that stands out (to me) with Ezekiel ELliot is the yards after contact. Per an ESPN article from September 29th, Elliot ranked second in yards after contact. I can’t find more current data, but based on the games I have watched, I would be stunned if he wasn’t #1 overall by a healthy margin. If you think Fournette can do that at the NFL level (and it certainly appears from his game film that he could), not taking him could lead to a decade of “what ifs”.
I’m all in on Myles Jack at #1. I think it would be a mistake to take anyone else. However, if Fournette falls to us at the Eagles pick (and Trubisky/Allen/Peppers or any other blue chip talents are already off the board), it would be a mistake not to at least consider him.
I’m still on the fence with Trubisky. The kid has a ton of raw talent and I love that he WANTS to be a Brown, but I’m always skeptical of 1 year wonders that play in the Spread offense. I’m very interested to see what comes out of the combine and his pro day. Honestly, there is a scenario where I can see him going to us at number 1. If the Eagles pick ends up being a top 5, and the franchise knows it can land Trubisky @ 1 and is fine with taking whoever is left from Garrett/Allen/Peppers/Humphrey/Tabor/Fournette with pick 1b, it would be hard to argue (strategically) against securing the coveted signal call with the first pick. Eventually this regime is going to need to hitch its fortunes to a QB, and I can’t blame them if they want to give themselves the best opportunity to succeed by using the #1 overall pick given the mitigation provided by the Eagles pick, and I’ve always said that the regime that succeeds in Cleveland will be the one that finds a franchise QB.
So the point of all that rambling? BPA means BPA, regardless of position. It’s tempting to draft for need, but remember that Green Bay drafter Brian Brohm and Aaron Rodgers with Favre under center.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0Just to disagree, BPA does NOT mean BPA. The best long snapper in the history of the sport might be in this draft. Should we draft him 1st overall? Of course not. It’s a silly example but it illustrates an important point, that there is a gray area for BPA. BPA to me should mean “best player available at an important position”. BPAIP. The discussion should center around just what positions are important enough to merit consideration at 1st overall pick. My list is going to be different from everyone else’s, but regardless of team or need here is my list.
QB, LT, Pass Rusher (4-3 DE or 3-4 OLB), CB. Grey areas include monumental talents at DT or WR.
Noticeably absent are RT, G, C, RB, LB. Those guys are very important but in my opinion not important enough to be drafted 1st overall. G and RB in particular I would never draft in the 1st round, despite the success of some who have been (such as Elliot).
Also worthy of discussion… what if the BPA (or BPAIP) is a left tackle? We have Joe Thomas and he wants to retire a Brown. Should we draft another LT? Play him out of position on the right side for 3 or 4 years until JT retires and then finally move him over? That seems like a waste to me. I would scratch that position out of consideration at 1st overall.
I will say this about Trubisky; he has an NFL frame. Holy crap is this kid built like a brick shithouse.
Trubisky isn’t just a beast in cleats and a helmet though. The dude can throw some weight around. As he prepared to take on Stanford on Dec. 30, Trubisky took some time to Hang Clean a cool 325 pounds in the weight room, much to the delight of his teammates—and himself. Putting up 325 isn’t setting any kind of record, but it’s a heck of a lot for a dude who plays quarterback.
Check out the second video on the page posted by Lou Hernandez:
watch-unc-qb-mitch-trubisky-hang-clean-325-pounds-and-then-lose-his-mind
One other thing I’ve paid attention to since we drafted Brandon Weeden is WR performance as a group. Make no mistake about it, the troubled Blackmon made Brandon Weeden’s career at OSU, Mike Evans certainly helped Johnny Manziel’s career at A&M, and there are many more examples where a below average QB has been bailed out by the presence of one exceptional receiver.
In the 2017 draft, that concern presents itself with Deshaun Watson and 6’3″ WR Mike Williams. Watson completed 329 passes for 3914 yards this season and 37 TDs, and Williams was the recipient of 84 of those completions, 1171 yards and 10 TD. You might have to ask yourself, who is the star (and it’s not necessarily and either/or proposition)?
The case is similar for Trubisky and 5’10” WR Ryan Switzer. Trubisky completed 281 passes for 3468 yards and 28 TDs with Switzer accounting for 91 receptions, 1027 yards and 5 TDs. While Switzer lead the team in yards though, 6’5″ Senior Bug Howard lead the team in TD receptions with 7.
Comparing the two situations, it becomes evident that Watson benefits more from Mike Williams (considered by many to be the top WR prospect in the draft) than Trubisky did from Switzer (considered a 4th round prospect) and Mack Hollins/Bug Howard (both of whom are projected to be undrafted).
And for anyone worried that this year’s draft class is weak, remember that Matt Ryan was called the poor man’s Brady Quinn, Russell Wilson was taken after RG3 and Brandon Weeden, and Spread Offense QB Derek Carr was taken after Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles and Teddy Bridgewater. As much as it pains me to say it, drafting and developing a QB is as much of an art as it is a science.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0“Just to disagree, BPA does NOT mean BPA. The best long snapper in the history of the sport might be in this draft. Should we draft him 1st overall? Of course not. It’s a silly example but it illustrates an important point, that there is a gray area for BPA.”
I was referring to football players, not special teams. That sounds a lot meaner than I had originally intended, but it speaks for itself.
Also worthy of discussion… what if the BPA (or BPAIP) is a left tackle? We have Joe Thomas and he wants to retire a Brown. Should we draft another LT? Play him out of position on the right side for 3 or 4 years until JT retires and then finally move him over? That seems like a waste to me. I would scratch that position out of consideration at 1st overall.
I’m of the opinion that you take him and play him on the right side until Thomas retires. As Soup has pointed out repeatedly, look how good Elliot and Prescott look behind Dallas’s line.
Now, scheme certainly factors in to determining the BPA. The BPA for a 3-4 defense might not be the BPA for a 4-3. The BPA for a West Coast Offense may not be the BPA for a Vertical Passing System that utilizes a Zone Blocking scheme. Given the injuries sustained to our QBs this year and the ineffectiveness of our running game, I think a very strong argument could be made for selecting Joe Thomas II with one of our top picks (if such a player existed in the draft).
I think the thing to remember is that we have to ultimately score (or prevent the scoring of) points. How you accomplish that is irrelevant, but that you accomplish it is paramount. Look at the impact that Rob Gronkowski has on the Patriots, Adrian Peterson has on the Vikings, or Julio Jones has on the Falcons. It would be easy to discount them because of their positions (and I would argue that based on who was drafted before them, that is exactly what happened), yet few players mean more to their respective teams than those individuals. Conversely, while we all love them, what difference has having Joe Thomas, Joe Haden, Kam Wimbley, Barkevious Mingo and Justin Gilbert (all “premium” positions) made for the Browns?
I believe the new regime understands the importance of scoring, and the addition of DePodesta (whose “Moneyball” mathematics looked at the connection between on base percentage and run scored while eschewing traditional baseball wisdom) was brought on board. I did the math back on Dawgbones, and I believe the magic number back then was 23 points per game (the rules have made it easier to score in my opinion so I believe it would be higher now but still in that ballpark). There are 16 games a week and 16 weeks in a season. That’s a total of 256 games in a year. Factor in that there are 2 teams in each game and there are 512 potential final scores in a year. Through Week 14 of this season (16 games x 14 weeks x 2 teams = 448), there have been 218 times where a team has failed to score more than 23 points. That means that when scoring more than 23 points in a game, your theoretical winning percentage is approximately 48.66%, or somewhere between 7-9 and 8-8.
A quick look at the top scoring offenses in the league shows that averaging 23 points is good enough for 15th place in the league, and 24 points would get you all the way up to 12th.
Conversely, looking at defensive scoring and allowing 23 points would be good enough for 16th place.
The Browns are currently scoring 15.69 points and allowing 28.8 points per game. So is it easier to score points or prevent them. I believe the answer is the former, and I will attempt to use physics and mathematics to illustrate my point.
Consider the importance of limits. The fewest number of points a team can score is zero. The next fewest points a team can score is 2 (safety) followed by a field goal at 3 points and a combination of the two for 5 points. But unlike the scoring in Jeopardy that allows players to go into the negative, an NFL team cannot score fewer than 0 points.
Why is this important? Consider the ratio of points scored to points allowed. If you score 23 points and allow 23 points, you have tied. Your ratio is 1/1 and your composite score is 1. However, if you score 24 points and only allow 23 points, your ratio is 24/23 and your composite score is 1.04. Your composite score being greater than 1, you win the game. Score 23 points and allow 24 and your ratio is 23/24, your composite score is .958 and you lose.
So what does it all mean? Is it easier to lift 23 lbs in each arm, or 46 lbs in one? Now think about your composite score. Score 23 and allow 23 and you are in balance. it’s like a 0 – 0 score at the beginning of the game. It takes no effort. Now double the number of points you score to 46 while allowing 23 points. 46/23 gives you a composite score of 2. But what happens if you try to do the same by halving the points allowed? 23/11.5 is your answer, but there is a problem. You cannot score 11.5 points. You can score 12 or 10, but not 11.5. So your composite score increases because the only possible option is actually 23/10 or 2.3 vs the 2.0 needed to double your score. The closer you get to zero, more effort is required to prevent scoring. Consider the graph of the function 1/X as X approaches zero. When X is equal to 1, the answer is 1. When X is .1, the answer is 10. When X is .01, the answer is 100 and when X is .001, the answer is 1000. The growth (or in this case the increase in difficulty) is exponential.
At any rate, my guess is that you will continue to see investments made on the offensive side of the ball as this will be the easiest way to get the team to an 8-8 record with the least amount of effort. I suspect this will also mean an emphasis will be placed on scoring production, both offensively and defensively. The goal being (if I am correct) to be to score 23 point any way possible.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0there is a gray area for BPA. BPA to me should mean “best player available at an important position”. BPAIP.
Nailed it. Agree 100%. No need to add anything further.
Also worthy of discussion… what if the BPA (or BPAIP) is a left tackle? We have Joe Thomas and he wants to retire a Brown. Should we draft another LT?
Ice is like mark Price at the free throw line right now. Boom, 2-2.
I will say this about Trubisky; he has an NFL frame. Holy crap is this kid built like a brick shithouse.
Makes me drool. And he has a live, more than capable arm.
Respect the line of thought, however Favre was getting ready to retire so they went preemptively. We have way too many holes to play that kind of game draft wise. For the record, Leveon Bell is the best back in the league. Not Elliott. And Elliott is excellent. Easily top 3.
Freedom!!!
Favre played with Jets and Vikings after leaving the Packers, so I refuse to accept the assertion that he was ready to retire. The organization drafted Rodgers, liked what they saw (they developed him properly) and Rodgers wasn’t going to wait another 3 years to start. The organization had positioned itself to do what was in its best interest and they pushed Favre out. The fact of the matter is that Joe Thomas was wasted on us. I feel terrible for the guy. He is a bright spot in a dark chapter of our past, but he is not our future.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0Favre played with Jets and Vikings after leaving the Packers, so I refuse to accept the assertion that he was ready to retire. The organization drafted Rodgers, liked what they saw (they developed him properly) and Rodgers wasn’t going to wait another 3 years to start. The organization had positioned itself to do what was in its best interest and they pushed Favre out. The fact of the matter is that Joe Thomas was wasted on us. I feel terrible for the guy. He is a bright spot in a dark chapter of our past, but he is not our future.
You can’t refuse the notion as he actually retired, then came out of retirement. They did it preemptively. Just like our (wrong guy move) drafting of Cam Erving while Mack was under contract. My biggest issue with Fournette is that we have way too many holes to grab a guy to replace 2 guys averaging 4.5 YPC. if we had guys getting 3.8 or 3.9 you’d have a legit point.
For Joe Thomas and grabbing a future replacement now to play RT, it solves two issues so I’m all for it.
Freedom!!!
If we won more games, then we’d have more bandwagon fans.
I don’t really know if that’s true. Historically, the Browns hav had one of the largest fanbases in the entire league. We all know about the World Wide Browns backers, and their chapters all over the globe.
I think you’d see fans actually “returning”, which would be a completely different thing.
There are scores of life-long, die-hard Browns fans that are just jaded beyond what they can bear. I’m talking 20-30 year season ticket holders, generational fans. We were at 7-4 just a few years ago, in 1st place, and generating some serious buzz in the city once again. Since that mark, the Browns have gone 3-31. (Which, let me tangent off here for a moment. Sweet Mother just think about that for a minute. 3-31. After 11 games in the 2014 season, the Browns were 7-4 and in 1st place, and since then have won a total of 3 games. 3!!! 3 and fucking 31. That is losing at a near impossible level. Just saying it out loud makes it hard to even fathom. 31 out of 34 games were losses. That right there, that span, is what finally broke the back of the fanbase. That’s where people, ardent fans as hopeful and supportive as they are, finally threw up the hands and said “enough of this shit, I don’t care anymore”. And honestly it’s hard to argue with them. In my heart I don’t think they’ve gone anywhere, I think they watch and follow more than they’ll admit too, an I think they still love this team just as much as they always have, it’s just now people have reached the point that being invested isn’t worth it. There’s other things to do on a Sunday besides watch the inevitable. There’s other games to watch, fantasy teams to be involved in, and other things to talk about. The Indians were in the World Series, the Cavs just won a Championship, really, who cares about the fucking Browns? Why should they? While the rest of Cleveland is out there busting their ass trying to wipe the stigma of loserdom off the record forever, from Stipe Miocic of the UFC, to the Monsters winning the Caulder Cup, and the just mentioned Cavs and Tribe, the browns are just doing their part to keep the mockery rolling at full boil by entering into a stretch of suck I don’t think any professional sports team has ever gone through. 3-31. That really pisses people off. Clevelanders have been sick and tired of the label for years now, and 2016 rolled around and was just a magical, amazing year for the city. All the browns have done is fucked that all up. People aren’t turning their backs necessarily, they’re just pissed. Really, really pissed. And rightfully so. It’s almost as if all of those demons that were exorcised in this year of winning have all gone into the Browns and people look at that team as a physical representation of all of our past complexes when it came to that loser label. And they fucking hate it. They want to distance themselves from it. Pretend it’s not there. Just the thought of it makes you sick to your stomach. That stretch of football, combined with all of the winning and Championships in one season, just broke the will and staying power of the majority of fans. /end tangent)
I don’t feel that it would be bandwagon fans, I feel it would be fans that felt that they finally were getting a product that they had long been denied, deserved, and could once again be proud of. Who can be proud of this team right now? Why would you even bother to try to be? I wear my Indians World Series hat around down here in dixie, and any conversation that starts always ends the same way. “You’re an Indians fan?” “Yeah, I’m from Cleveland” “Oh, that makes sense then. Great Series.” “Yeah I’m proud of ’em, thanks”. “Hey, at least you got LeBron” “I know right! Finally got a Championship!” “Yeah, but…….you still got those Browns Waaaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha”
Every time. It’s like no matter what Cleveland does, the browns being out there just embarassing the shit out of us weekly taints everything else that the city has done as a collective sports town.
If that goes away, you’d see all of those fans that are sick of having conversations end like that come back, and finally show their pride. it’s too damn hard to be a prideful Browns fan these days, it really is.
Aside from the few remaining dopes around here. Die-hard isn’t the right term to describe us. We need to invent one.
I’m gonna just stoop typing now because I feel like I have a mic in my face instead of a keyboard and I’ll just ramble on and turn this into a Shooter novel. Basically, not bandwagon fans, just fans that want to be proud again. This is just brutal to go through.
I’ve got nothing at all against Garrett but lets look at simple math Clev S.F. Chic N.Y.J all will be looking for quarterbacks in the draft maybe only two or three will have first round grades we all know that the QB’s get pushed up the board due to need and anyone who thinks we can grab Garrett at #1 and then have our QB waiting at #7 or #8 is smoking some really good stuff. make it simple take the Qb at #1.
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