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Tale of the Tape: 2017 NFL Draft Prospect Film Study
After a 24-27 defeat at the hands of a Pittsburgh squad that was absent Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le’veon Bell, the Cleveland Browns officially hold the #1 pick in the 2017 NFL draft. In addition to owning the #1 pick, Cleveland also holds the #12 pick from the Eagles, their own second round pick at #33 and the Titans second round pick which should be somewhere around #50. We’ll also have our own third round pick at #65, 3 compensatory picks in the 4th and 5th rounds (our own 4th will go to New England for Jamie Collins – assuming we are not awarded a 3rd round compensatory pick, which would then go to New England), our own 6th round pick and the Colts 7th round pick.
As a physics and math major who is extremely interested in mathematical analysis and performance analytics, my suspicion is that we will see the Browns package several of our late round picks together to move up into the second and third rounds of the draft. The reason for this is twofold: the more productive a player is in college, the more likely they are to be taken early in the draft (and since analytics focuses on production in certain situations, players with higher analytical scores will most likely be found earlier in the draft), and players taken earlier in the draft have, on average, a longer career in the NFL than players taken in the later rounds. Per an article on MGOBlog.com, the approximate average career length of players taken in the first 7 rounds is as follows:
The steepest drop off occurs in the first three rounds, which means (on average) the more picks the Browns can make in rounds 1-3, the more likely that player is to contribute for an extended amount of time. The steepness of the line is important. Note that moving from the 4th round to the 3rd round will net you (on average) 0.5 years while moving from the 3rd round to the 2nd round should net you 1 year. As such, simply moving up one round can yield dramatically different results (and this fact begins to explain the trade value chart).
That said, it is extremely difficult to mock potential trade scenarios and I won’t even begin to try. What I am going to do is look at players that are currently projected to be taken in the first three rounds of the draft. I’ll be specifically looking at two different types of prospects: the best players available and players that are projected to be available when we pick that also fill a need. When possible, I will look at film from the player’s best game of the season, the player’s worst game of season (statistically) and a third game where there performance is in line with their averages for the season.
I’ll start with the prospect that is being hailed by many as a once in a generation type talent akin to Jevon Kease or Julius Peppers: Texas A&M DE Myles Garret.
Garrett is listed as 6′ 5″ tall and 262 lbs. An edge rusher in John former LSU (and current A&M) DC John Chavis’s 4-3 defense, Garrett projects to an OLB in Horton’s 3-4, serving in a similar role as pass rush specialist Clay Mathews (when he’s not busy helping out the depleted LB core at MLB).
In 2016, despite a nagging ankle injury, Garrett accounted for 33 tackles in 11 games (15 of which were for a loss totaling 78 yards) and 8.5 sacks while breaking up a pass, hurrying the QB an additional 10 times, forcing 2 fumbles and blocking 1 kick*.
The Good: Myles Garrett vs. Alabama
While Myles Garrett’s best statistical outing came against UT San Antonio, I was unable to find complete game footage of that game. However, I’m almost glad I didn’t. Having your second best statistical game against Alabama probably gives me a better idea of how he will play as a pro anyway.
Notable match up: Alabama’s 6’6″ 310lb Cam Robinson – The highest rated OT in the 2017 NFL draft and largely considered a top 5 pick.
Stats: 7 tackles (3 solo), 3.5 tackles for a loss, 1 hurry.
Notable plays:
00:49 – Robinson goes low, Garrett maintains his footing and hurries the QB, pass falls incomplete
1:16 – Garrett seals the edge but cannot shed Robinson. Inside run for big gain.
2:40 – Garrett covers running back who attempts to engage in a block and is absolutely manhandled. Pressures QB, incomplete pass.
4:10 – Blows right by the tight end (who doesn’t even get a hand on him) and tackles the running back for a loss.
4:52 – Seals off the outside, sheds Robinson to make the tackle for a loss, shows a nasty streak as he throws the running back backwards.
6:51 – Garrett drives Robinson back and collapses the pocket, forcing the QB to his right where he is sacked.
8:17 – Again drives G OJ Howard back and forces the QB out of bounds for a loss.
10:17 – On 2nd and 1, run to the opposite side, Garret comes free. has the speed to get to get across the field to the running back, tackle for a loss.
11:38 -cuts through the line and wraps up the running back for a loss, again showing a nasty streak as he spins around and throws him backwards.
Notes: Does an excellent job of sealing the edge but will sometimes overpursue in the open field. Will often stop before the play is over if he knows where the ball is (which is often), not a “whistle to whistle” performance but that could be a result of excellent awareness. Very strong at the point of attack, drove Cam Robinson back repeatedly and absolutely laid waste to TE and Running Backs who tried to block him.
Grade: A-
The Average: Myles Garrett vs. Tennessee
Garrett records 3 tackles (2 solo), and 1 sack in a 45-38 double overtime victory against #9 Tennessee at Texas A&M.
Notable match up: None
Stats: 3 Tackles (2 solo), 1 Sack, 1 Hurry
Notable Plays:
00:00 – Seals the edge and overpowers the Vols TE, dropping the running back for no gain.
00:11 – Sheds the guard and overpowers the center on a double team, hits the QB causing the pass to pall incomplete.
00:44 – Double teamed and CLEARLY held, still drags two OL with him as he collapses the pocket and forces the QB to roll right out of the pocket.
1:03 – Nice move on the LT, gets his hands up and causes the QB to alter his throwing motion. No stat recorded, but clearly impacted the play.
1:48 – 3rd and 18, overpowers the RT and drives him back, collapsing the pocket.
3:00 – beats the tackle around the edge and pressures the QB, pass incomplete.
4:51 – drives the tackle back into the QB, affect the throw – INT, game over.
Notes: Double teamed multiple times and even when he wasn’t recording stats he was impacting the game. Has the speed to blow by tackles on the edge and the strength to bull rush RBs, TEs and OTs not named Cam Robinson. Again, does not play whistle to whistle, and in this game there were several plays he could have impacted had he maintained pursuit. Sets the edge exceptionally well and very rarely out of position.
Grade: B
The Ugly: Myles Garrett vs LSU
Garrett has a down day in a 54-39 loss to LSU, recording 2 tackles (0 solo) and no other defensive stats.
Notable Match up: None
Stats: 2 Tackles (0 solo)
Notable plays:
00:10 – seals the edge and easily sheds the fullback.
3:42 – beats the double team by splitting the TE and OT and charges into the backfield, tackling the RB for a loss.
4:42 – Beats the guard on the inside and collapses the pocket, forcing the QB to roll to his left. Incomplete pass.
6:44 – Garrett moves the guard backwards and closes the lane for the RB who is promptly tackled by his teammate.
7:38 – after a no call on the TE for holding, Garrett throws the TE to the ground when he refuses to let go of him. Penalty, but I like the fire.
9:56 – Garrett starts outside then beats the tackle inside and drills the QB causing an incompletion.
10:11 – Garrett sheds half of the LSU offensive line and tackles the RB for a loss.
11:01 – Garrett blows up the TE and makes first contact on the RB for what will ultimately be a tackle for a loss.
12:08 – Garrett instantly recognizes the fake to the WR and stays with the RB inside.
Notes: Garrett got held. A lot. Blatantly. But even when he was unable to get to the QB, Garrett did a good job of getting his hands up so the QB doesn’t have a clean window to throw in. LSU double teamed Garrett all day long, and that created numerous opportunities for his teammates. Garrett also showed that he is just as comfortable rushing up the middle as he is coming off the edge. Garrett also did a good job of covering the Rb in the flat when called upon, easing some of the concerns I had about his ability to transition from DE to OLB in the Browns 3-4.
Grade: B-
The verdict:
I cannot argue with the assertion that Garrett is a generational talent. His combination of strength, speed and ability to bend is simply unmatched at the college football level today, putting up above average stats against the best LT in college football. I think the comparisons to Jevon Kearse and Julius Peppers are certainly justified, as his athleticism and personality type (Garrett is a genuinely likable kid) resemble a popular athlete as opposed to a mean mugging enforcer like Terrell Suggs or J.J. Watt. There is a marked difference from his 2015 film to his 2016 film in terms of his motor and drive, and it’s difficult to believe that the ankle injury he suffered in the Arkansas game didn’t have something to do with that, as both his tackle and sack totals suffered considerably. Commenting on games against Arkansas, Ole Miss and LSU from 2015, NFL.com media analyst Daniel Jeremiah said “He is constantly double teamed or chip-blocked, and he doesn’t get frustrated or allow his effort to diminish. He always plays snap to whistle.” and after a cursory review of that film I’m inclined to agree.
The bottom line is this, when he was healthy in 2015 he was other worldly. In 2016, battling a nagging ankle injury that saw him miss several games, he was still one of the most dominant players in college football. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that Garrett has the potential to be a perennial pro bowler in the NFL, even in his down years, for the next decade.
The #1 overall pick holds a lot of promise and a lot risk. I can’t imagine us taking anyone but Myles Garrett with the first pick in the 2017 NFL draft. But buyer beware. While it was the #1 overall pick that brought the Colts Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it was also the pick that landed the San Francisco 49ers “Not Aaron Rodgers”. So, up next (and for the sake of due diligence), Alabama’s stud Senior defensive lineman, the 6’3″ 291 lbs Jonathan Allen.
*Source: cfbstats.com
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0That is a fantastic article DS! I like how you pointed out specific plays that are worth looking at. This is the best way for all of us to educate ourselves on a player.
One thing that’s worth discussing… a lot of people have compared him to the Freak, but someone also pointed out that he has significantly shorter arms than Kearse. I don’t know how short (I guess we’ll find out at the combine) but that could hurt him in the NFL.
Having a significantly shorter wingspan than Kearse, whose wingspan measured 86″, is not necessarily detrimental because Kearse was truly an outlier. An article written about the 2014 by Josh Levin which appeared in Slate found that the average wingspan of NBA prospects that year was 4.8 inches longer than their height (compared to the average man at 2.1 inches longer than his height). At 6’5″ tall (77 inches), Kearse’s wingspan was a staggering 11″ longer than his height, one of the many reasons he was referred to as “The Freak”.
It is believed Garrett’s height will be in the vicinity of 6’4″ (76″), and just looking at the pictures of him I suspect that he will eclipse even the 4.8″ average of the 2014 NBA draft class. To that end, I’m not worried about a single one of his physical measurements, even if they are significantly below Kearse’s (especially considering Kearse appeared in only 3 Pro Bowls during his 11 year career). If the arms are too long, you can lose leverage, and I think a well reasoned argument could be made that Kearse’s arms were too long as opposed to Myles Garrett’s arms being too short.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0Garrett may be all that and more but A no one is can’t miss coming out of college b even if he is and the defense improves how many more games do we win c some want to use our first three or four picks on defense totally disreguarding the offensive side of the ball not a smart move in my opinion d we still need a QB.
Garrett may be all that and more but A no one is can’t miss coming out of college b even if he is and the defense improves how many more games do we win c some want to use our first three or four picks on defense totally disreguarding the offensive side of the ball not a smart move in my opinion d we still need a QB.
I agree that there is no such thing as a can’t miss talent. Some of the greatest college football players failed to transition to the NFL despite exceptional physical talents. The point, which I hope I made, was that his game film revealed a physical talent level that is so rare the likelihood of his success in the NFL is significantly enhanced.
To your second point, I believe that Garrett is a game changer. I believe he’s the difference between getting the 3rd down stop and not. Forcing fumbles, pressuring the QB and getting sacks or causing errant throws that lead to INTs, blocking extra point and field goal attempts (all of which he did against top notch talent like LSU and Alabama in college).
To your third and final point, just as QBs have to take what the defense gives them, so too does the Front Office have to take what the draft gives them. While I completely agree that we need a QB, but there isn’t an obvious once in a generation type talent available at that position this year. By most accounts, this draft is relatively weak at the QB position. This is why so many have discussed trading for Jimmy Garoppolo and A.J. McCarron as opposed to taking a QB in the draft.
As such, it appears as if this draft will give us the opportunity to significantly increase the overall talent level of defense if we don’t reach for a QB that probably won’t succeed at the next level (like the Bills did with E.J. Manuel) because we’re desperate. The list of potential QB next year includes USC’s Sam Darnold, Lamar Jackson, Josh Rosen, Patrick Mahomes II (who is eligible this year but has not declared yet), and Jake Browning. While our position this year certainly supports taking the best QB in this draft, there’s a strong possibility that ANY QB picked in the first round next year will be a better prospect than the first QB picked in this year’s draft. Even Mahomes II, who I believe will prove to be the best QB in this draft, is not worth more than a late second round pick because he played in an Air Raid at Texas Tech against notoriously soft Big 12 defenses.
Ultimately, the Browns aren’t going to be fixed in a single draft and taking the BPA makes a lot of sense for this franchise, even if the BPA isn’t a QB. And eventually, this regime is going to have to find a QB. Haslam is shouldering the responsibility for this season (and rightfully so), he may even shoulder the responsibility for next season. Beyond that, Hue, Sashi and Company are going to be held accountable for the product on the field.
Just out of curiosity, who would you take at QB in the 2017 NFL draft and why?
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0The hardest thing to contemplate is that there may be NO solution to the QB situation in 2017. Any draft capital we spend at QB this year, either drafting one or trading for one, may well be completely wasted. The scouts have to decide whether or not that’s the case. If they say there’s no QB that has top 20 QB potential available then it’s the job of Sashi and Co NOT to panic and grab one. Solidify the line, build up the defense so that our starter at least has a chance.
Ice, I would assert that is always the case. Our feelings about the future are often confused with knowledge of the future, and confirmation bias constructs a reality that minimizes cognitive dissonance. We will remember the times we were right and further strengthen our view while forgetting the multitude of times we were wrong (to avoid the stress that accompanies uncertainty).
While there have been examples of truly bad QB classes (2013 comes to mind), the general consensus up until recently was that this year’s QB class would be stronger than the last (part of the reason we chose to pass on Carson Wentz at No. 2). Consider these excerpts from a quick Google search on the 2016 vs 2017 NFL QB Class:
With that in mind, should teams bypass taking a quarterback this year and wait until next year? Let’s take a look at next years projected quarterback class: Deshaun Watson, Brad Kaaya, Baker Mayfield, JT Barrett, Malik Zaire, Josh Dobbs, and Seth Russell. In that list, you have Heisman candidates, college playoff quarterbacks, and guys who’s talent is substantially higher than this years class.
Yeah, Erik makes a great point. It’s a modified way to wave the surrender flag by signing a one-year QB. In my eyes, there’s a legit case that could be made for Watson, Kaaya, and Kiel in which they provide the same amount of intrigue as this year’s “franchise QBs”. I’ll need convincing that Cook and Goff are better options than Kaaya and Watson. I think the decision of signing a holdover guy also depends on the state of the rest of the team. Cleveland can afford to “tank” with eyes set on Kaaya. The Rams on the other hand can not. If my team were years away from competing, call me crazy but I’ll set my eyes on 2017 QBs.
My point the last few years has been this: selecting a franchise QB is an art, not a science. As much as I love analytics (and I LOOOOOOVE me some analytics), no one, and I mean no one, had a higher grade on Kirk Cousins than they did on RG3. With hindsight we can tell ourselves we always knew Cousins was the better prospect, but when Washington traded into the #2 spot, no one was under the delusion that they were taking anyone but RG3. Yet it was Cousins who would go on to succeed.
As such, and I’ve discussed the fact that Packers have drafted more QBs since 1999 than we have before, you have to play the odds by addressing the position with draft picks until you hit. The higher the draft pick, the more likely the QB is to succeed, but it is not guaranteed. Look at how many successful QBs have been taken while another starting caliber QB is on the roster:
Aaron Rodger drafted while Favre was the starter
Andrew Luck drafted while Peyton Manning was the starter
Phillip Rivers drafted while Drew Brees was the Starter
Tom Brady drafted while Drew Bledsoe was the starter
Kirk COusins drafted at the same time RG3 was drafted to startThat’s not to say that’s the only way you can draft a successful QB (Mariota, Wilson, Winston, Flacco, etc.) but it is interesting that so many teams who already have appeared to answer the question at QB continue to draft QBs. It’s no coincidence.
FYI – I’m watching the TexasTechTV app in hopes of learning if Patrick Mahomes is declaring right now: http://www.texastech.com/watch/?Live=1127
Edit: Mahomes II just declared.
818 mph. 13,723 feet. 3 second burn.
https://youtu.be/hy-3bb1Nqy0
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